MRCOG Part 1 Subject Guide

MRCOG Part 1: Statistics & Epidemiology

~75 questionsMedium priority

Statistics and Epidemiology is one of the most formula-driven subjects in MRCOG Part 1, with approximately 75 questions. The same question types appear repeatedly — sensitivity/specificity, positive predictive value, study design and statistical tests. Learn the formulas once and this becomes a high-scoring subject.

Topics Covered

Screening & Diagnostic Tests

  • Sensitivity — proportion of true positives correctly identified (TP / TP + FN)
  • Specificity — proportion of true negatives correctly identified (TN / TN + FP)
  • Positive predictive value (PPV) — TP / TP + FP; depends on prevalence
  • Negative predictive value (NPV) — TN / TN + FN; depends on prevalence
  • Likelihood ratios — positive LR = sensitivity / (1 - specificity)
  • ROC curves — area under curve measures test performance; top-left = ideal test
  • Effect of prevalence on PPV and NPV — high prevalence increases PPV

Study Design

  • Randomised controlled trial (RCT) — gold standard for causation, blinding types
  • Cohort study — prospective or retrospective, relative risk calculated
  • Case-control study — odds ratio calculated, good for rare outcomes
  • Cross-sectional study — prevalence, not incidence
  • Systematic review and meta-analysis — forest plots, heterogeneity (I²)
  • Bias types — selection bias, information bias, confounding

Statistical Tests & Measures

  • Mean, median, mode — which to use in skewed distributions
  • Normal distribution — 68-95-99.7 rule
  • Standard deviation vs standard error — SE = SD / √n
  • p-value — probability of result if null hypothesis were true; p<0.05 convention
  • Confidence intervals — 95% CI; if CI for RR includes 1.0, result is non-significant
  • Type I error (false positive) vs Type II error (false negative); power = 1 - Type II error
  • Parametric vs non-parametric tests — t-test, ANOVA, Mann-Whitney, chi-squared

Measures of Association

  • Relative risk (RR) — cohort studies; RR = 1 means no association
  • Odds ratio (OR) — case-control studies; approximates RR when disease is rare
  • Number needed to treat (NNT) = 1 / absolute risk reduction
  • Absolute risk reduction (ARR) vs relative risk reduction (RRR)
  • Attributable risk — excess risk due to exposure in exposed group

Exam Tips for Statistics & Epidemiology

1

Sensitivity/specificity calculations from 2×2 tables are tested every sitting — practice until automatic.

2

Remember: PPV and NPV depend on prevalence; sensitivity and specificity do not.

3

Confidence intervals: a 95% CI for an odds ratio that crosses 1.0 means no significant association at p=0.05.

4

Study design question tip: if the question asks which study design is "most appropriate" for a rare disease, answer case-control.

5

Statistics at Square One (Swinscow) is free online — read it twice. It covers everything you need.

Recommended Book

Statistics at Square One by Swinscow — short, free online, covers all MRCOG statistics topics.

Practice Statistics & Epidemiology questions now

AceMRCOG has 75 Statistics & Epidemiology SBA questions with detailed explanations. Start with 50 questions free — no credit card needed.

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